Sequential Design of Experiments via Linear Programming

Abstract

The celebrated multi-armed bandit problem in decision theory models the basic trade-off between exploration, or learning about the state of a system, and exploitation, or utilizing the system. In this paper we study the variant of the multi-armed bandit problem where the exploration phase involves costly experiments and occurs before the exploitation phase; and where each play of an arm during the exploration phase updates a prior belief about the arm. The problem of finding an inexpensive exploration strategy to optimize a certain exploitation objective is NP-Hard even when a single play reveals all information about an arm, and all exploration steps cost the same. We provide the first polynomial time constant-factor approximation algorithm for this class of problems. We show that this framework also generalizes several problems of interest studied in the context of data acquisition in sensor networks. Our analyses also extends to switching and setup costs, and to concave utility objectives. Our solution approach is via a novel linear program rounding technique based on stochastic packing. In addition to yielding exploration policies whose performance is within a small constant factor of the adaptive optimal policy, a nice feature of this approach is that the resulting policies explore the arms sequentially without revisiting any arm. Sequentiality is a well-studied concept in decision theory, and is very desirable in domains where multiple explorations can be conducted in parallel, for instance, in the sensor network context.