Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams

G. Molchan

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arXiv · 0807.2533

Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams

G. Molchan

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Abstract

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity 'tau' is not defined uniquely, so that the properties of the (n,tau) diagram require a theoretical analysis, which is the main goal of the present study. This note is based on a recent paper by Molchan and Keilis-Borok in GJI, 173 (2008), 1012-1017.

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G. Molchan. 2008-07-16. Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams. https://arxiv.org/abs/0807.2533

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