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arXiv · 0807.3524

Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen?

Rinaldo B. Schinazi
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Abstract

We propose two simple probability models to compute the probability of an influenza pandemic. Under a random walk model the probability that all pandemics between times 0 and 300 occur by time 150 is 1/2. Under a Poisson model with mean inter arrival time of 30 years the probability that no pandemic occurs during at least 60 years is 14%. These probabilities are much higher than generally perceived. So yes the next influenza pandemic will happen but maybe much later than generally thought.

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Rinaldo B. Schinazi. 2008-07-22. Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen?. https://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3524

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