Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 0812.4010

Discrete Time vs Continuous Time Stock-price Dynamics and implications for Option Pricing

Abstract

In the present paper we construct stock price processes with the same marginal log-normal law as that of a geometric Brownian motion and also with the same transition density (and returns' distributions) between any two instants in a given discrete-time grid. We then illustrate how option prices based on such processes differ from Black and Scholes', in that option prices can be either arbitrarily close to the option intrinsic value or arbitrarily close to the underlying stock price. We also explain that this is due to the particular way one models the stock-price process in between the grid time instants which are relevant for trading. The theoretical result concerning scalar stochastic differential equations with prescribed diffusion coefficient whose densities evolve in a prescribed exponential family, on which part of the paper is based, is presented in detail.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Damiano Brigo, Fabio Mercurio. 2008-12-21. Discrete Time vs Continuous Time Stock-price Dynamics and implications for Option Pricing. https://arxiv.org/abs/0812.4010

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Rough Bergomi turns grey

We propose a tractable extension of the rough Bergomi model, replacing the fractional Brownian motion with a generalised grey Brownian motion, which we show to be reminiscent of models with stochastic volatility of volatility. This extension breaks away from the log-Normal assumption of rough Bergomi, thereby making it a viable suggestion for the Equity Holy Grail -- the joint SPX/VIX options calibration. For this new (class of) model(s), we provide semi-closed and asymptotic formulae for SPX and VIX options and show numerically its potential advantages as well as calibration results.

q-fin.PR

Design and pricing of a transparent parametric-modeled loss CAT bond: application to German windstorm

Catastrophe (cat) bonds overcome some lack of reinsurance by sourcing capacity from the wider capital markets. We present a new type of cat bond addressing the known trade-off between moral hazard and basis risk. As our main contributions we propose a trigger mechanism which is entirely transparent and simpler to evaluate compared to indemnity modeling techniques, as well as a methodology to price this cat bond. This is relevant for insurers and public authorities in a world where natural disasters are occurring with increasing frequency and severity due to climate change, but also for players willing to enter the cat bond market for whom the lack of transparency of this asset class has been a significant obstacle. Our trigger is derived from a cost random field which separates the physical hazard, a vulnerability function and the exposure. This allows the trigger to take a flexible form between parametric and modeled loss, in case exposure is taken into account. We present a case study based on historical windstorm events impacting Germany. Using wind speed data from historical storms, we fit a max-stable random field on a resolution which is standard in the reinsurance industry. The availability of industry loss and exposure data allows us to calibrate the vulnerability component to historical observations. Besides measuring the basis risk associated with our trigger, we perform a full model assessment and discuss numerical results.

q-fin.PR

Fundamentals of Perpetual Futures

Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturity futures, perpetuals are not guaranteed to converge to the spot price. To minimize the gap between perpetual and spot prices, long investors periodically pay shorts a funding rate proportional to this difference. We derive no-arbitrage prices for perpetual futures in frictionless markets and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically, deviations from these prices in crypto are larger than in traditional currency markets, comove across currencies, and diminish over time. An implied arbitrage strategy yields high Sharpe ratios.

q-fin.PR