Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 0908.3458

The Optimal Unbiased Value Estimator and its Relation to LSTD, TD and MC

Steffen Grünewälder·Klaus Obermayer
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

In this analytical study we derive the optimal unbiased value estimator (MVU) and compare its statistical risk to three well known value estimators: Temporal Difference learning (TD), Monte Carlo estimation (MC) and Least-Squares Temporal Difference Learning (LSTD). We demonstrate that LSTD is equivalent to the MVU if the Markov Reward Process (MRP) is acyclic and show that both differ for most cyclic MRPs as LSTD is then typically biased. More generally, we show that estimators that fulfill the Bellman equation can only be unbiased for special cyclic MRPs. The main reason being the probability measures with which the expectations are taken. These measure vary from state to state and due to the strong coupling by the Bellman equation it is typically not possible for a set of value estimators to be unbiased with respect to each of these measures. Furthermore, we derive relations of the MVU to MC and TD. The most important one being the equivalence of MC to the MVU and to LSTD for undiscounted MRPs in which MC has the same amount of information. In the discounted case this equivalence does not hold anymore. For TD we show that it is essentially unbiased for acyclic MRPs and biased for cyclic MRPs. We also order estimators according to their risk and present counter-examples to show that no general ordering exists between the MVU and LSTD, between MC and LSTD and between TD and MC. Theoretical results are supported by examples and an empirical evaluation.

Explore related subjects

stat.MLmath.STstat.TH

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Steffen Grünewälder, Klaus Obermayer. 2009-08-24. The Optimal Unbiased Value Estimator and its Relation to LSTD, TD and MC. https://arxiv.org/abs/0908.3458

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects: Doubly Robust Estimation and Testing

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to capture such conditional distributional treatment effects, and develop a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal in the local asymptotic sense. Using this, we develop a test for the global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions that accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), has provably valid type 1 error, and is consistent against fixed alternatives---the first test, to our knowledge, with such guarantees in this setting. We then provide a test that aggregates evidence across a grid of kernel-bandwidth choices. Furthermore, we derive exact closed-form expressions for two natural discrepancies (including the MMD), and provide a computationally efficient, permutation-free algorithm for our test.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Chaos Is a LADDER: Domain Generalization Beyond Invariance via Reweighting

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn from multiple source domains and generalize to unseen target domains. Most DG methods pursue invariance: they seek a causal representation whose prediction rule is invariant across domains. This principle is effective when the causal mechanism is stable, but becomes restrictive when the domain itself modulates how causal content maps to the response. In this case, directly feeding domain style into the predictor can create misleading shortcuts, since style does not by itself cause the response. Yet the apparent chaos of multiple styles can become a ladder: style can locate the unseen target domain among source domains and guide which domain-dependent prediction rules should be trusted. We propose \emph{Latent Adaptive Domain Disentanglement and Environment Reweighting} (LADDER), a fixed-model DG pipeline that learns causal/style representations, freezes the encoders, fits source-specific classifiers, and uses an unlabeled target-domain covariate set only at inference to compute weights over these fixed classifiers, with no target labels or model-state updates. We establish theoretical guarantees for source reweighting and validate LADDER on simulations, FMoW, and a location-grouped iWildCam protocol, with gains in overall and group-averaged accuracy.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Density-Ratio Rescoring for Imbalanced Classification Using Raking Duals and Classifier Scores

Density-Ratio Rescoring (DRR) augments a classifier trained at the original class prior with a survey-raking dual score. Raking reweights the majority sample to match minority feature moments within a tolerance. DRR marginally standardizes the dual and base scores and combines them with a fixed weight of one half, using the fitted dual directly for prediction without resampling or refitting the base classifier. Under exact population matching and a correctly specified log-linear tilt model, the dual equals the log density ratio up to an additive constant. A class-separation analysis characterizes the signal strength and correlation conditions under which fusion improves separation under common within-class covariance. On 24 tabular benchmarks, evaluated over 30 trials and five base learners, DRR at the D=128 random-feature setting improves average precision over the standardized base on every dataset, with a mean gain of 0.034. It exceeds the shared-dual raking-and-relabeling resampler on 22 of 24 datasets, with a mean gain of $0.092$, and on all eight one-versus-rest tasks of a shared gene-expression cohort. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of using raking duals as reusable scores for improving rare-class ranking while retaining classifiers trained at the original prior.

stat.ML↗