Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1106.1081

Can large (M >= 8) EQs be triggered by tidal (M1) waves? An analysis of the global seismicity that occurred during 1901 - 2011

C. Thanassoulas·V. Klentos·G. Verveniotis·N. Zymaris
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The analysis of two global data sets of large earthquakes (2010 - 2011, 30 samples of M \geq 7R and 1901-2011, 178 samples of M \geq 8R) reveals that there exists a cause and effect relation between the vertical tidal M1 component amplitude peak and the time of occurrence of the latter EQs. A physical model mechanism is postulated that justifies the obtained results. It is shown that the tidal waves can trigger a large EQ, despite their small amplitude, provided that the seismogenic area is under critical stress load conditions. Actually, it is shown that a large EQ can be triggered by the cooperative action of all vertical tidal components but mainly by the M1 and K1 ones. Examples are presented from the most recent global large EQs (Summatra, Mw = 9.1, 2004 and Japan, Mw = 9.0, 2011) and from Greece (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 2006 and Skyros, Greece, Ms = 6.1R, 2001). The postulated physical model provides the means for the implementation of the first step towards a really short-term earthquake prediction.

Explore related subjects

physics.geo-ph

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

C. Thanassoulas, V. Klentos, G. Verveniotis, N. Zymaris. 2011-06-06. Can large (M >= 8) EQs be triggered by tidal (M1) waves? An analysis of the global seismicity that occurred during 1901 - 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1106.1081

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Three dimensional non-singular mollified elastic dislocation theory for extended width fault zones and inhomogeneous boundary element models

Classical elastic dislocation theory (CEDT) has two challenges when applied to faulting problems: 1) fictitious on-fault stresses not defined by ordinary integration and 2) the geometric unreality of infinitely thin fault zones. We show that both can be resolved by a mollified elastic dislocation theory (MEDT) built on Cortez blob (Cortez, 2001) mollified displacement discontinuity Green's functions, which represent deformation across spatially distributed fault zones of finite scale epsilon and produce singularity-free displacements and stresses everywhere. Analytical integration of the mollified source solution over arbitrary planar triangular elements is done with AI, and the resulting closed-form solutions allow for the calculation of non-singular stresses across geometrically complex fault systems. Further, we demonstrate the decoupling of the fault-zone width scale epsilon from the mesh length scale h, the elasticity analog of a result established for regularized viscous flow Stokeslets (Ferranti and Cortez, 2024). We use these mollified kernels to demonstrate numerically stable collocation boundary element models including spatially extended fault zones, material property variations and non-planar topography.

physics.geo-ph↗
arXiv2026

Identifying the approach of a major earthquake

By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of a major earthquake (EQ) occurrence. The current investigation is extended from 1984 until now for the seismicity in Japan.

physics.geo-ph↗
arXiv2026

ADEPTS: An auto-differentiable framework for time-dependent nonlinear thermo-chemical mantle convection inversion

Time-dependent mantle-dynamics inversion must address the high dimensionality of the initial state, nonlinear rheology, and gradient propagation through long-term thermo-mechanical evolution. We develop ADEPTS, a two-dimensional staggered-grid finite-difference framework for mantle-dynamics inversion based on automatic differentiation. The forward model solves incompressible Stokes flow, temperature advection-diffusion, and compositional advection with temperature- and strain-rate-dependent viscosity and plastic yielding. For the nonlinear Stokes system, we compare two gradient strategies: unrolled differentiation through a fixed number of Picard iterations and implicit differentiation of the converged discrete residual equations. Numerical experiments show that unrolled differentiation remains stable even when the nonlinear solve is not fully converged, whereas implicit differentiation requires sufficiently accurate nonlinear solutions; otherwise gradient consistency and optimization convergence deteriorate. With sufficiently converged solves, implicit differentiation recovers accurate gradients and reconstruction quality comparable to unrolled differentiation. Joint thermo-chemical twin experiments show that ADEPTS can simultaneously recover a high-dimensional initial temperature field and low-dimensional physical parameters, including compositional density, reference viscosity, and stress exponent, while fitting final-time temperature, surface horizontal velocity, and surface normal stress. These results demonstrate the feasibility of differentiable time-dependent mantle-dynamics inversion and clarify the different convergence requirements of unrolled and implicit differentiation.

physics.geo-ph↗