Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1106.4149

On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk

Laurens de Haan·Albert Klein Tank·Cláudia Neves
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall may not change much but heavy storms may become more or less frequent). The paper studies changes over time in the probability that some high threshold is exceeded. The model is such that the threshold does not need to be specified, the results hold for any high threshold. For simplicity a certain linear trend is studied depending on one real parameter. Estimation and testing procedures (is there a trend?) are developed. Simulation results are presented. The method is applied to trends in heavy rainfall at 18 gauging stations across Germany and The Netherlands. A tentative conclusion is that the trend seems to depend on whether or not a station is close to the sea.

Explore related subjects

math.STstat.TH

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Laurens de Haan, Albert Klein Tank, Cláudia Neves. 2013-04-03. On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-014-0207-8

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Statistical models as natural transformations: meaningfulness, coherence and priors as states in Markov categories

We show that a statistical model in the sense of McCullagh, in the form given by Brøns, is a natural transformation between two functors from the category of designs to the Kleisli category Stoch of the Giry monad, provided that its components are measurable in the parameter. The condition is empty for finite models. A design-indexed quantity is a family of morphisms of Stoch defined on the parameter objects, called meaningful if it is natural. We prove that Tjur's criterion, imposed on parameter functions indexed by finite samples with multiplicities, forces the indexing by the support and then coincides with naturality over the insertions. For finite designs we show that a quantity can be corrected to a natural one within a given class of corrections if and only if a class vanishes in the first cohomology group of a Baues-Wirsching complex relative to that class, while its image in the absolute group is always zero. In the one-way layout, marginal dispersion is not meaningful, and within-group dispersion is the unique correction that leaves the merged design unchanged. A prior is a family of states on the parameter objects, called coherent over a class of design morphisms if it is natural over that class. We show that coherence at a merge confines the prior to the image of the corresponding parameter map, that coherence over the insertions is Kolmogorov consistency, and that coherence over the injections adds the exchangeability assumed by the categorical de Finetti theorem. In the finite one-way scheme, the coherent priors form polytopes of known dimension. The analogue of Jeffreys' general rule is not coherent, while the analogue for location-scale families is. Finally, we show that ridge regression is the Bayesian inversion of the Gaussian linear model with respect to a Gaussian prior, which is coherent over the insertions and never over the injections.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

Sample complexity and weak limits of nonsmooth multimarginal Schrödinger system with application to optimal transport barycenter

Multimarginal optimal transport (MOT) has emerged as a useful framework for many applied problems. However, compared to the well-studied classical two-marginal optimal transport theory, analysis of MOT is far more challenging and remains much less developed. In this paper, we study the statistical estimation and inference problems for the entropic MOT (EMOT), whose optimal solution is characterized by the multimarginal Schrödinger system. Assuming only boundedness of the cost function, we derive sharp sample complexity for estimating several key quantities pertaining to EMOT (cost functional and Schrödinger coupling) from point clouds that are randomly sampled from the input marginal distributions. Moreover, with substantially weaker smoothness assumption on the cost function than the existing literature, we derive distributional limits and bootstrap validity of various key EMOT objects. As an application, we propose the multimarginal Schrödinger barycenter as a new and natural way to regularize the exact Wasserstein barycenter and demonstrate its statistical optimality.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

Nonparametric spectral density estimation using interactive mechanisms under local differential privacy

We study the problem of estimating the spectral density of a centered stationary Gaussian time series under local differential privacy constraints. Specifically, we propose new interactive privacy mechanisms for three tasks: recovering a single covariance coefficient, recovering the spectral density at a fixed frequency, and global recovery. Our approach achieves faster rates through a two-stage process: we first apply the Laplace mechanism to the truncated value, and then use the resulting privatized sample to learn about the dependence mechanism in the time series. For spectral densities belonging to Hölder and Sobolev smoothness classes, we demonstrate that our algorithms improve upon the non-interactive mechanism of Kroll (2024) for small privacy parameter $α$, since the pointwise rates depend on $nα^2$ instead of $nα^4$. Moreover, we show that the rate $(nα^4)^{-1}$ is optimal for estimating a covariance coefficient with non-interactive mechanisms. However, the $L_2$ rate of our interactive estimator is slower than the pointwise rate. We show how to use these procedures to provide a bona fide locally differentially private estimator of the entire covariance matrix. A simulation study validates our findings.

math.ST↗