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arXiv · 1108.0766

The mortality of the Italian population: Smoothing techniques on the Lee--Carter model

Valeria D'Amato·Gabriella Piscopo·Maria Russolillo
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Abstract

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of the mortality intensity. Hyndman-Ullah show a particular version of the Lee-Carter methodology, the so-called Functional Demographic Model, which is one of the most accurate approaches as regards some mortality data, particularly for longer forecast horizons where the benefit of a damped trend forecast is greater. The paper objective is properly to single out the most suitable model between the basic Lee-Carter and the Functional Demographic Model to the Italian mortality data. A comparative assessment is made and the empirical results are presented using a range of graphical analyses.

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Valeria D'Amato, Gabriella Piscopo, Maria Russolillo. 2011-08-03. The mortality of the Italian population: Smoothing techniques on the Lee--Carter model. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-aoas394

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