Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1210.8175

A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation

René Aïd·Luciano Campi·Nicolas Langrené·Huyên Pham
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors.

Explore related subjects

math.NAcs.NAmath.PRq-fin.CP

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

René Aïd, Luciano Campi, Nicolas Langrené, Huyên Pham. 2012-10-30. A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation. https://doi.org/10.1137/120897298

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

How many continuous measurements are needed to learn a vector?

One can recover vectors from $\mathbb{R}^m$ with arbitrary precision, using only $\lceil \log_2(m)\rceil +1$ continuous measurements that are chosen adaptively. This surprising result is explained and discussed, and we present applications to infinite-dimensional approximation problems.

math.NA↗
arXiv2026

IterativeCUR: Large Rank-Adaptive Approximation From a Small Recycled Sketch

The computation of accurate low-rank matrix approximations is central to improving the scalability of various techniques in machine learning, uncertainty quantification, and control. Traditionally, low-rank approximations are constructed using SVD-based approaches such as truncated SVD or Randomized SVD. Although these SVD approaches---especially Randomized SVD---have proven to be very computationally efficient, other low-rank approximation methods can offer even greater performance. One such approach is the CUR decomposition, which forms a low-rank approximation using direct row and column subsets of a matrix. Because CUR uses direct matrix subsets, it is also often better able to preserve native matrix structures like sparsity or non-negativity than SVD-based approaches and can facilitate data interpretation in many contexts. This paper introduces IterativeCUR, which draws on previous work in randomized numerical linear algebra to build a new algorithm that is highly competitive compared to prior work. IterativeCUR is adaptive in the sense that it takes as an input parameter the desired tolerance $ε$ and outputs (with arbitrarily high probability) an approximation of error bounded by $ε$, rather than requiring an a priori guess of the numerical rank. IterativeCUR typically runs significantly faster than both existing CUR algorithms and techniques such as Randomized SVD. Its asymptotic complexity is $\mathcal{O}(mn + (m+n)r^2)$ for an $m\times n$ matrix of output rank $r$. IterativeCUR relies on a single small sketch from the matrix that is successively downdated as the algorithm proceeds. We demonstrate through extensive experiments that IterativeCUR achieves up to $4\times$ speed-up over state-of-the-art pivoting-on-sketch approaches with no loss of accuracy, and up to $40\times$ speed-up over rank-adaptive randomized SVD approaches.

math.NA↗
arXiv2026

Multigrid with Linear Storage Complexity

As the discretization error for the solution of a partial differential equation (PDE) decreases, the precision required to store the corresponding coefficients naturally increases. Storing the solution's finite element coefficients explicitly requires $\mathcal O(n \log n)$ bits of storage, where $n$ is the number of degrees of freedom (DoFs). This paper presents a full multigrid method to compute the solution in a compressed format that reduces the storage complexity of the solution and intermediate vectors to $\mathcal O(n)$ bits. This reduction allows a matrix-free implementation to solve elliptic PDEs with an overall linear space complexity. For problems limited by the memory capacity of current supercomputers, we expect a memory footprint reduction of about an order of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art mixed-precision methods. We demonstrate the applicability of our algorithm by solving two model problems. Depending on the PDE and polynomial degree, but irrespective of the problem size, the solution vector on the finest grid requires between 4 and 12 bits per DoF, and the residual and correction require 3 to 6 bits each. Additional data is stored on the coarse grids with modestly increasing bit widths toward coarser grids.

math.NA↗