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arXiv · 1301.1525

Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

Andrew W. Baggaley·Richard J. Boys·Andrew Golightly·Graeme R. Sarson·Anvar Shukurov
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Abstract

We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.

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Andrew W. Baggaley, Richard J. Boys, Andrew Golightly, Graeme R. Sarson, Anvar Shukurov. 2013-01-08. Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-aoas579

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