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arXiv · 1309.5164

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections

Patrick J. Michaels·Paul C. Knappenberger·John R. Christy·Chad S. Herman·Lucia M. Liljegren·James D. Annan
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Abstract

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions.

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Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, John R. Christy, Chad S. Herman, Lucia M. Liljegren, James D. Annan. 2013-09-20. Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5164

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