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arXiv · 1310.3956

Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models

Dragutin T. Mihailović·Gordan Mimić·Ilija Arsenić
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Abstract

Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's Theorem and Rosen's definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. It is pointed out to occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models is analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this systems. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, is analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameters, the logistic parameter and the parameter of exchange, was studied calculating the Lyapunov exponent under simulations with the closed contour of N=100 environmental interfaces. Finally, we have explored possible differences in complexities of two global and two regional climate models using their output time series by applying the algorithm for calculating the Kolmogorov complexity.

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Dragutin T. Mihailović, Gordan Mimić, Ilija Arsenić. 2013-10-15. Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014%2F878249

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