Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1311.3101

Possible climates on terrestrial exoplanets

Francois Forget·Jeremy Leconte
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on exoplanetary climates, for instance to optimize future telescopic observations, or to assess the probability of habitable worlds. To first order, climate primarily depends on 1) The atmospheric composition and the volatile inventory; 2) The incident stellar flux; 3) The tidal evolution of the planetary spin, which can notably lock a planet with a permanent night side. The atmospheric composition and mass depends on complex processes which are difficult to model: origins of volatile, atmospheric escape, geochemistry, photochemistry. We discuss physical constraints which can help us to speculate on the possible type of atmosphere, depending on the planet size, its final distance for its star and the star type. Assuming that the atmosphere is known, the possible climates can be explored using Global Climate Models analogous to the ones developed to simulate the Earth as well as the other telluric atmospheres in the solar system. Our experience with Mars, Titan and Venus suggests that realistic climate simulators can be developed by combining components like a "dynamical core", a radiative transfer solver, a parametrisation of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code. On this basis, we can aspire to build reliable climate predictors for exoplanets. However, whatever the accuracy of the models, predicting the actual climate regime on a specific planet will remain challenging because climate systems are affected by strong positive destabilizing feedbacks (such as runaway glaciations and runaway greenhouse effect). They can drive planets with very similar forcing and volatile inventory to completely different states.

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.EP

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Francois Forget, Jeremy Leconte. 2013-11-18. Possible climates on terrestrial exoplanets. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0084

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Bridging magnetothermal winds and photoevaporation to model discs dispersal

Protoplanetary disc dispersal is driven by two processes usually modelled separately: photoevaporative and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) disc winds. Global simulations indicate that in the inner disc these are not distinct outflows but a single magnetothermal wind. We assemble a closed-form, two-phase model that respects it. A single-field-line wind, whose base is fixed by the irradiated temperature and penetration column, supplies the launch and feeds a secular evolution, with photoevaporation convolved on as a sink. The flux closure $B_z\proptoΣ^q$ is self-limiting: for $q\le1/2$ depletion alone cannot demagnetise the disc, so dispersal requires independent flux loss, parameterised by the magnetic Reynolds number $\mathcal{R}_m$. Integrating the coupled system yields two regimes. Efficient flux loss ($\mathcal{R}_m\lesssim1$) lets the magnetisation front recede by over an order of magnitude and opens a photoevaporative gap. Flux retention ($\mathcal{R}_m\gg1$) drives the front outward, sustains accretion, and defers dispersal by $\approx2.7$~Myr. Deriving the base from stellar irradiation instead of prescribing it, we find that the cold-launch approximation is valid during the early stages of disc evolution: anchoring the base at plasma equipartition ($β_{\rm base} \sim 1$) confines irradiation's influence on the magnetic lever arm to the magnetothermal annulus, decoupling the peak accretion rate from the incident flux. Both regimes clear the disc inside-out, through either a photoevaporatively amplified cavity wall or an expanding magnetothermal front.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Faithful Neural Embeddings for 3D Exoplanet Climate Modeling

With the rapid advancement of telescopes like JWST and Ariel, there is an urgent need for efficient 3D climate models to interpret observations of exoplanet atmospheres. Traditional 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are computationally intensive, prompting the development of machine learning (ML) emulators to accelerate simulations. Recent work, such as that by Plaschzug et al. 2026 \cite{plaschzug2026accelerating}, uses a dense neural network (DNN) to predict local gas temperatures and winds from input parameters, including local gas pressure, spatial coordinates (longitude and latitude), and global temperature. However, this model relies on predicting individual temperature values (points) at specific grid points, which can be limited by the resolution and constraints of the training grid. In this work, we investigate a couple of alternative frameworks based on latent-space representations of local gas temperature ($\text{T}_{\text{gas}}$) to obtain a faithful, low-dimensional representation of these profiles. This represents the first step toward developing a latent space regression model, offering a structurally cohesive alternative to the existing point-wise prediction method \cite{plaschzug2026accelerating}. By capturing the optimal embedding space of atmospheric data, our proposed framework can produce simulated profiles while maintaining computational efficiency, making it suitable for large-scale exoplanet ensemble studies.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Some challenges for the long-term survival of Naiad, Neptune's innermost moon

The Naiad-Thalassa 73:69 mean-motion resonance implies these moons have co-existed for $\gtrsim$1 Gyr, raising the question of how they survived to the present day. We examine three challenges to Naiad's long-term survival: tidal disruption, heliocentric bombardment, and runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris. We constrain Naiad's internal strength requirements from its nominal density and shape, compute present-day impact rates on Neptune's inner moons from heliocentric bombardment, and use $N$-body simulations to model the fate of ejecta produced by non-disruptive impacts. First, Naiad's nominal density of ${\sim}0.8\text{ g cm}^{-3}$ and elongated shape suggest it cannot be held together by self-gravity alone, implying a cohesive strength of $\gtrsim10$ kPa to avoid tidal disruption, although this constraint is relaxed if Naiad has a higher density of ${\gtrsim}1.3\text{ g cm}^{-3}$. Second, we show that Naiad may have been disrupted in the last 1 Gyr by heliocentric bombardment, although this depends sensitively on the size-frequency distribution of Kuiper Belt objects at small sizes and on Naiad's catastrophic disruption threshold, both of which are poorly constrained. Third, and most notably, we find that even small, non-disruptive impacts can trigger runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris on extremely short timescales. Avoiding this ``sesquinary catastrophe'' requires that Naiad has a collisional strength of at least several MPa, which is difficult to reconcile with being a reaccumulated ``rubble pile'', leftover from the capture of Triton and the subsequent cataclysm of Neptune's primordial satellite system. Together, these results suggest that Naiad may be a physically unusual object among small ring-moons -- possibly a largely coherent, monolithic fragment -- and that our understanding of Neptune's inner satellite system leaves much to be explained.

astro-ph.EP↗