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arXiv · 1406.6461

Sociophysics in the mexican case (Sociofísica en el caso mexicano)

I. Ibarra López·H. Hernández-Saldaña
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Abstract

The availability of electoral data in electronic format allowed to physicist and mathematicians their own analysis. Beyond theoretical models for electoral processes, new regularities had been found in the data analysis of many countries and many elections. Here, we discuss some of the statistical regularities found for México, from power laws Daisy models linked in corporate vote. The methods used are those from standard statistics and statistical mechanics. As a particular application we discuss an entropic approach to the distribution of votes for the Partido Revolucionario Institucional and we demonstrate that this kind of method DOES NOT allow to discover a massive buy of vote. The argument is that such a distribution has been amazingly consistent in the last two decades elections. Other methods have been unsuccessful to discover signal of fraud. RESUMEN: Con la disponibilidad de datos electorales en formato electrónico los físicos y matemáticos iniciaron sus propios análisis de los datos. Más allá de los modelos teóricos desarrollados para los procesos electorales, nuevas regularidades empezaron a surgir de los datos en muchas elecciones y en muchos países. Aquí discutimos algunas de las regularidades estadísticas encontradas para México. En particular, la aparición de leyes de potencia y modelos Margarita (Daisy models) que se pueden asociar al voto corporativo. Los métodos utilizados son de estadística y física estadística estándar. Como una aplicación particular, discutimos una aproximación entrópica a la distribución de votos del Partido Revolucionario Institucional y demostramos que éste método NO permite diferenciar una compra masiva de votos pues su comportamiento ha sido sorprendentemente consistente. De igual forma otros métodos han resultado infructuosos en determinar signos de fraude.

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I. Ibarra López, H. Hernández-Saldaña. 2014-06-25. Sociophysics in the mexican case (Sociofísica en el caso mexicano). https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.6461

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