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arXiv · 1407.3322

Distribution System Load and Forecast Model

Raffi Sevlian·Siddarth Patel·Ram Rajagopal
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Abstract

This short document provides experimental evidence for the set of assumptions on the mean load and forecast errors made in \cite{Sevlian2014A_Outage} and \cite{Sevlian2014B_Outage}. We show that the mean load at any given node is distributed normally, where we compute the mean and variance. We then present an aggregation-error curve for a single day ahead forecaster. Residual analysis shows that beyond 500 customers, gaussian residuals is a reasonable model. We then show the forecaster has uncorrelated errors.

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Raffi Sevlian, Siddarth Patel, Ram Rajagopal. 2014-07-11. Distribution System Load and Forecast Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.3322

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