Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1408.5143

Next Generation Strong Lensing Time Delay Estimation with Gaussian Processes

Alireza Hojjati·Eric V. Linder
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Strong gravitational lensing forms multiple, time delayed images of cosmological sources, with the "focal length" of the lens serving as a cosmological distance probe. Robust estimation of the time delay distance can tightly constrain the Hubble constant as well as the matter density and dark energy. Current and next generation surveys will find hundreds to thousands of lensed systems but accurate time delay estimation from noisy, gappy lightcurves is potentially a limiting systematic. Using a large sample of blinded lightcurves from the Strong Lens Time Delay Challenge we develop and demonstrate a Gaussian Process crosscorrelation technique that delivers an average bias within 0.1% depending on the sampling, necessary for subpercent Hubble constant determination. The fits are accurate (80% of them within 1 day) for delays from 5-100 days and robust against cadence variations shorter than 6 days. We study the effects of survey characteristics such as cadence, season, and campaign length, and derive requirements for time delay cosmology: in order not to bias the cosmology determination by $0.5σ$, the mean time delay fit accuracy must be better than 0.2%.

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.CO

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Alireza Hojjati, Eric V. Linder. 2014-09-06. Next Generation Strong Lensing Time Delay Estimation with Gaussian Processes. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.90.123501

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Constraints on the Thomson optical depth to the CMB from the Lyman-$α$ forest

We present the first constraints on the electron optical depth to reionization, $τ_{\mathrm{e}}$, from the Lyman-$α$ forest alone for physically motivated reionization models that match the reionization's end-point, $z_{\rm{end}}$, required by the same astrophysical probe, and for symmetric reionization models with fixed duration, $Δz$, commonly adopted in CMB reionization analyses. Compared to traditional estimates from the latter, the Lyman-$α$ forest traces the ionization state of the IGM through its coupling with the thermal state. We find an explicit mapping between the two solving the chemistry and temperature evolution equations for hydrogen and helium. Our results yield $τ_{\mathrm{e}}$=$0.040^{+0.042}_{-0.018}$ (95\% C.L) and $τ_{\mathrm{e}}$=$0.041^{+0.028}_{-0.017}$ for reionization models with $z_{\rm{end}}$ and $Δz$-fixed, respectively. With mock Lyman-$α$ forest data that mimics the precision of future larger quasar sample datasets, we would potentially obtain tighter $τ_{\mathrm{e}}$ constraints, paving the way for CMB-independent constraints on the epoch of reionization from a large-scale structure probe.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

Non-minimally Coupled Running Curvaton for DESI-motivated Dynamical Dark Energy

Recent DESI BAO data combined with CMB and supernova measurements suggest a dynamical dark energy that can cross the phantom divide. We show that introducing a non-minimal coupling $ξχ^2R$ to the running-curvaton framework allows a single field to drive early-universe curvature perturbations and late-time phantom-crossing cosmic acceleration without ghost instabilities. Using MCMC background likelihoods with DESI DR2 BAO, Pantheon+ SNe, and a reduced CMB prior, we constrain the cosmological parameters: $H_0 = 67.88^{+0.53}_{-0.61}\,{\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$, $Ω_m = 0.3072^{+0.0059}_{-0.0054}$, $w_0 = -0.922^{+0.055}_{-0.063}$, and $w_a = -0.205^{+0.173}_{-0.182}$. Parameter degeneracies leave the coupling constants weakly constrained, highlighting the need for full perturbation-level analysis using CMB spectra and lensing.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

On the Relation Between Field-Level Posteriors, Correlators, and their Likelihoods

We develop a field-level posterior for cosmological data by marginalizing over initial conditions and noise in a general forward model. While our focus is on large-scale structure data, the results generalize to any weakly non-Gaussian observable. Moreover, the construction is non-perturbative with respect to the forward model and applies equally well to perturbative calculations, simulation-based predictions, and more general effective descriptions. Expanding the FLP around its Gaussian limit, we derive a general expression for the Fisher matrix and reorganize the field-level information into contributions associated with the connected correlators of the evolved field. This makes explicit which terms are captured by likelihood analyses based on the power spectrum, the bispectrum, or finite sets of summary statistics, and which are lost under compression. We recover the standard Gaussian-covariance result for the power spectrum, show that the Gaussian bispectrum likelihood reproduces the corresponding field-level contribution, and show how cross-covariances among summaries progressively reconstruct more of the full field-level information. As an application to the BAO scale, we show how the field contains all the information required for its optimal reconstruction in the presence of noise, and identify the contributions in the FLP needed to attain this limit. We also show that the reconstruction of the initial field arises naturally as a byproduct of our approach, yielding the optimal estimate of the initial conditions given the data and the noise. Our results provide a unified framework to compare field-level and correlator-based inference, to quantify the information loss induced by compression, and to explore the role of stochasticity.

astro-ph.CO↗