Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia

John M. Drake; RajReni B. Kaul; Laura Alexander; Suzanne M. O'Regan; Andrew M. Kramer; J. Tomlin Pulliam; Matthew J. Ferrari; Andrew W. Park

arXiv · 1410.8564

Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia

John M. Drake·RajReni B. Kaul·Laura Alexander·Suzanne M. O'Regan·Andrew M. Kramer·J. Tomlin Pulliam·Matthew J. Ferrari·Andrew W. Park

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Abstract

In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been been sustained for greater than 10 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to several key policy questions concerning the path to containment. In recent years, epidemic models have been used to guide public health interventions. But, model-based policy relies on high quality causal understanding of transmission, including the availability of appropriate dynamic transmission models and reliable reporting about the sequence of case incidence for model fitting, which were lacking for this epidemic. To investigate the range of potential transmission scenarios, we developed a multi-type branching process model that incorporates key heterogeneities and time-varying parameters to reflect changing human behavior and deliberate interventions. Ensembles of this model were evaluated at a set of parameters that were both epidemiologically plausible and capable of reproducing the observed trajectory. Results suggest that epidemic outcome depends on both hospital capacity and individual behavior. The model predicts that if hospital capacity is not increased soon, then transmission may outpace the rate of isolation and the ability to provide care for the ill, infectious, and dying. Similarly, containment will probably require individuals to adopt behaviors that increase the rates of case identification and isolation and secure burial of the deceased. Given current knowledge, it is uncertain that this epidemic will be contained even with 99% hospitalization rate at the currently projected hospital capacity.

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John M. Drake, RajReni B. Kaul, Laura Alexander, Suzanne M. O'Regan, Andrew M. Kramer, J. Tomlin Pulliam, Matthew J. Ferrari, Andrew W. Park. 2014-10-30. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.8564

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