Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 1501.05280

Emergence of non-zonal coherent structures

Abstract

Planetary turbulence is observed to self-organize into large-scale structures such as zonal jets and coherent vortices. One of the simplest models that retains the relevant dynamics of turbulent self-organization is a barotropic flow in a beta-plane channel with turbulence sustained by random stirring. Non-linear integrations of this model show that as the energy input rate of the forcing is increased, the homogeneity of the flow is first broken by the emergence of non-zonal, coherent, westward propagating structures and at larger energy input rates by the emergence of zonal jets. The emergence of both non-zonal coherent structures and zonal jets is studied using a statistical theory, Stochastic Structural Stability Theory (S3T). S3T directly models a second-order approximation to the statistical mean turbulent state and allows the identification of statistical turbulent equilibria and study of their stability. Using S3T, the bifurcation properties of the homogeneous state in barotropic beta-plane turbulence are determined. Analytic expressions for the zonal and non-zonal large-scale coherent flows that emerge as a result of structural instability are obtained and the equilibration of the incipient instabilities is studied through numerical integrations of the S3T dynamical system. The dynamics underlying the formation of zonal jets are also investigated. It is shown that zonal jets form from the upgradient momentum fluxes that result from the shearing of the eddies by the emerging infinitesimal large-scale flow. Finally, numerical simulations of the nonlinear equations confirm the characteristics (scale, amplitude and phase speed) of the structures predicted by S3T, even in highly non-linear parameter regimes such as the regime of zonostrophic turbulence.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Nikolaos A. Bakas, Petros J. Ioannou. 2015-01-21. Emergence of non-zonal coherent structures. https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.05280

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

FAST-ML: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Framework for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics numerical weather prediction models can represent the processes governing RI, resolving storm-environment interactions remains computationally expensive, while purely data-driven approaches often lack physical interpretability. We present FAST-ML, a hybrid framework that bridges data-driven efficiency with physical constraints. A physically informed dual-stream neural parameterization ingests 3D ERA5 fields to diagnose ventilation controls---environmental wind shear and mid-level entropy deficit. By optimizing these parameters end-to-end through a differentiable FAST intensity model, this architecture establishes a robust new paradigm for observation-driven parameter optimization, ensuring storm evolution remains strictly governed by thermodynamic principles. By better capturing the storm's continuous intensity evolution, FAST-ML improves upon its physical baseline, reducing ensemble CRPS across forecast lead times, with a reduction of approximately 31% at 60 h and nearly halving the RI false alarm ratio without sacrificing detection skill. In a 100-member ensemble configuration, FAST-ML produces intensity forecasts comparable to FNV3 for selected storms under the evaluated input configurations. Furthermore, zero-shot tests on selected Eastern Pacific storms provide encouraging evidence of cross-basin transferability. FAST-ML provides a modular intensity forecasting framework that can be coupled with externally supplied storm tracks and environmental fields. It demonstrates that observation-driven parameter learning within physically constrained dynamics simultaneously enhances accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency.

physics.ao-ph

West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation

We introduce a stretched-grid artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model with 2-km resolution over the western United States and part of the Northeast Pacific and approximately 31-km resolution elsewhere globally. Forecasting over the western U.S. is challenging because complex topography and atmospheric rivers (ARs) strongly influence orographic precipitation. West-WRF AI 2-km builds on a global model pretrained with a 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset and is fine-tuned with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) 2-km regional reanalysis to produce autoregressive 6-hourly forecasts of precipitation and integrated vapor transport (IVT). Forecasts are evaluated over winters 2020-2023 using gridded precipitation observations, rain gauges, and AR Reconnaissance dropsondes and are benchmarked against coarser-resolution AI forecasts and regional and global numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. West-WRF AI 2-km reproduces observed precipitation-intensity distributions, retains fine-scale spectral variability, and produces sharper narrow coastal precipitation bands and localized, terrain-sensitive extremes. Its broader-scale performance remains comparable to coarser-resolution configurations while preserving large-scale skill despite higher resolution. Dropsonde verification shows lower errors and improved categorical skill at the most extreme IVT threshold. Overall, West-WRF AI 2-km provides its greatest value for localized precipitation extremes and intense AR-related moisture transport.

physics.ao-ph

Hydrological Constraints on Temperature Sensitivities of Precipitation Frequency and Intensity

To improve understanding of how precipitation frequency and intensity change with warming, we combine the coupled land--atmosphere water balance with a stochastic hydrological model that retains explicit dependence on precipitation frequency and event depth. We find a linear relationship between co-variations of rainfall frequency and intensity, where the slope is a hydrological sensitivity determined by the dryness and storage indices and the intercept is a forcing term associated with changes in moisture convergence, potential evapotranspiration, and effective water-storage capacity. While a given relative change in either rainfall frequency or intensity produces an identical relative change in the mean rate, rainfall intensity additionally influences the runoff coefficient by altering terrestrial water storage relative to rainfall depth. This means frequency and intensity have different impacts on the water cycle, allowing the frequency--intensity slope to depart from -1. Analysis of long-term MOPEX records shows that the forcing term is dominated by moisture convergence and that the frequency--intensity relation becomes steeper from wet to dry regimes, consistent with the slope predicted by the theory. The framework provides a physical interpretation of the observed negative covariation between precipitation frequency and intensity and clarifies the roles of hydrological partitioning and atmospheric moisture supply in their responses to warming.

physics.ao-ph