Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1505.02183

Obliquity and precession as pacemakers of Pleistocene deglaciations

Fabo Feng·C. A. L. Bailer-Jones
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The Milankovitch theory states that the orbital eccentricity, precession, and obliquity of the Earth influence our climate by modulating the summer insolation at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Despite considerable success of this theory in explaining climate change over the Pleistocene epoch (2.6 to 0.01 Myr ago), it is inconclusive with regard to which combination of orbital elements paced the 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles over the late Pleistocene. Here we explore the role of the orbital elements in pacing the Pleistocene deglaciations by modeling ice-volume variations in a Bayesian approach. When comparing models, this approach takes into account the uncertainties in the data as well as the different degrees of model complexity. We find that the Earth's obliquity (axial tilt) plays a dominant role in pacing the glacial cycles over the whole Pleistocene, while precession only becomes important in pacing major deglaciations after the transition of the dominant period from 41 kyr to 100 kyr (the mid-Pleistocene transition). We also find that geomagnetic field and orbital inclination variations are unlikely to have paced the Pleistocene deglaciations. We estimate that the mid-Pleistocene transition took place over a 220 kyr interval centered on a time 715 kyr ago, although the data permit a range of 600--1000 kyr. This transition, occurring within just two 100\,kyr cycles, indicates a relatively rapid change in the climate response to insolation.

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.EPphysics.ao-ph

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Fabo Feng, C. A. L. Bailer-Jones. 2015-05-08. Obliquity and precession as pacemakers of Pleistocene deglaciations. https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.02183

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Bridging magnetothermal winds and photoevaporation to model discs dispersal

Protoplanetary disc dispersal is driven by two processes usually modelled separately: photoevaporative and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) disc winds. Global simulations indicate that in the inner disc these are not distinct outflows but a single magnetothermal wind. We assemble a closed-form, two-phase model that respects it. A single-field-line wind, whose base is fixed by the irradiated temperature and penetration column, supplies the launch and feeds a secular evolution, with photoevaporation convolved on as a sink. The flux closure $B_z\proptoΣ^q$ is self-limiting: for $q\le1/2$ depletion alone cannot demagnetise the disc, so dispersal requires independent flux loss, parameterised by the magnetic Reynolds number $\mathcal{R}_m$. Integrating the coupled system yields two regimes. Efficient flux loss ($\mathcal{R}_m\lesssim1$) lets the magnetisation front recede by over an order of magnitude and opens a photoevaporative gap. Flux retention ($\mathcal{R}_m\gg1$) drives the front outward, sustains accretion, and defers dispersal by $\approx2.7$~Myr. Deriving the base from stellar irradiation instead of prescribing it, we find that the cold-launch approximation is valid during the early stages of disc evolution: anchoring the base at plasma equipartition ($β_{\rm base} \sim 1$) confines irradiation's influence on the magnetic lever arm to the magnetothermal annulus, decoupling the peak accretion rate from the incident flux. Both regimes clear the disc inside-out, through either a photoevaporatively amplified cavity wall or an expanding magnetothermal front.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Faithful Neural Embeddings for 3D Exoplanet Climate Modeling

With the rapid advancement of telescopes like JWST and Ariel, there is an urgent need for efficient 3D climate models to interpret observations of exoplanet atmospheres. Traditional 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are computationally intensive, prompting the development of machine learning (ML) emulators to accelerate simulations. Recent work, such as that by Plaschzug et al. 2026 \cite{plaschzug2026accelerating}, uses a dense neural network (DNN) to predict local gas temperatures and winds from input parameters, including local gas pressure, spatial coordinates (longitude and latitude), and global temperature. However, this model relies on predicting individual temperature values (points) at specific grid points, which can be limited by the resolution and constraints of the training grid. In this work, we investigate a couple of alternative frameworks based on latent-space representations of local gas temperature ($\text{T}_{\text{gas}}$) to obtain a faithful, low-dimensional representation of these profiles. This represents the first step toward developing a latent space regression model, offering a structurally cohesive alternative to the existing point-wise prediction method \cite{plaschzug2026accelerating}. By capturing the optimal embedding space of atmospheric data, our proposed framework can produce simulated profiles while maintaining computational efficiency, making it suitable for large-scale exoplanet ensemble studies.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Some challenges for the long-term survival of Naiad, Neptune's innermost moon

The Naiad-Thalassa 73:69 mean-motion resonance implies these moons have co-existed for $\gtrsim$1 Gyr, raising the question of how they survived to the present day. We examine three challenges to Naiad's long-term survival: tidal disruption, heliocentric bombardment, and runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris. We constrain Naiad's internal strength requirements from its nominal density and shape, compute present-day impact rates on Neptune's inner moons from heliocentric bombardment, and use $N$-body simulations to model the fate of ejecta produced by non-disruptive impacts. First, Naiad's nominal density of ${\sim}0.8\text{ g cm}^{-3}$ and elongated shape suggest it cannot be held together by self-gravity alone, implying a cohesive strength of $\gtrsim10$ kPa to avoid tidal disruption, although this constraint is relaxed if Naiad has a higher density of ${\gtrsim}1.3\text{ g cm}^{-3}$. Second, we show that Naiad may have been disrupted in the last 1 Gyr by heliocentric bombardment, although this depends sensitively on the size-frequency distribution of Kuiper Belt objects at small sizes and on Naiad's catastrophic disruption threshold, both of which are poorly constrained. Third, and most notably, we find that even small, non-disruptive impacts can trigger runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris on extremely short timescales. Avoiding this ``sesquinary catastrophe'' requires that Naiad has a collisional strength of at least several MPa, which is difficult to reconcile with being a reaccumulated ``rubble pile'', leftover from the capture of Triton and the subsequent cataclysm of Neptune's primordial satellite system. Together, these results suggest that Naiad may be a physically unusual object among small ring-moons -- possibly a largely coherent, monolithic fragment -- and that our understanding of Neptune's inner satellite system leaves much to be explained.

astro-ph.EP↗