Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1510.02604

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for State and Parameter Estimation in Abruptly Changing Environments

Christopher Nemeth·Paul Fearnhead·Lyudmila Mihaylova
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach combines Bayesian methods for dealing with changepoints with methods for estimating static parameters within the SMC framework. The result is an approach which adaptively estimates the model parameters in accordance with changes to the target's trajectory. The developed approach is compared against the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter for tracking a maneuvering target over a complex maneuvering scenario with nonlinear observations. In the IMM filter a large combination of models is required to account for unknown parameters. In contrast, the proposed approach circumvents the combinatorial complexity of applying multiple models in the IMM filter through Bayesian parameter estimation techniques. The developed approach is validated over complex maneuvering scenarios where both the system parameters and measurement noise parameters are unknown. Accurate estimation results are presented.

Explore related subjects

stat.CO

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Christopher Nemeth, Paul Fearnhead, Lyudmila Mihaylova. 2015-10-09. Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for State and Parameter Estimation in Abruptly Changing Environments. https://doi.org/10.1109/tsp.2013.2296278

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Fast inversion of the generalized Fisher transformation of correlation matrices

The generalized Fisher transformation maps a non-singular correlation matrix to an unconstrained real vector through the off-diagonal elements of its matrix logarithm. Evaluating its inverse is a computational bottleneck in dynamic correlation and multivariate volatility models. We develop a fast inversion algorithm by characterizing the unknown diagonal as the minimizer of a smooth, strictly convex, and coercive objective. An explicit Hessian and global spectral bounds identify the standard fixed-point iteration as a quasi-Newton method and explain why it can converge slowly near singularity. Every fixed-point step decreases the objective, and the iteration converges from every starting point. These results motivate GFT-FP+N, a hybrid of fixed-point and matrix-free Newton steps that never forms the Jacobian. In benchmarks with up to 1,000 replications per design and dimensions up to 800, GFT-FP+N reduces computation time by up to a factor of forty-five relative to the fixed-point iteration and converged in every replication, including on designs where Broyden's method almost always fails. Julia and R packages are provided.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2026

Exact Simulation of Diffusions via Brownian Bridge Range Reconstruction

We develop an exact simulation algorithm for scalar diffusion paths and diffusion bridges when the Poisson potential is unbounded in both tails. The method reconstructs the realized range of a Brownian bridge proposal by sampling its maximum and location, together with the maxima and locations of the two adjacent restricted Brownian meanders. Conditional on this finite information, the remaining path decomposes into four conditionally independent interval-constrained Brownian bridges, which can be sampled exactly at the Poisson times required by the rejection test. In contrast to constructions based on an enclosing range layer, the proposed representation retains the exact extrema and their locations. Our algorithm returns an exact finite-dimensional skeleton without time-discretization error and permits exact post-acceptance refinement at arbitrary finite collections of times. Numerical experiments validate the resulting finite-dimensional laws and identify the restricted-meander extremum simulation as the principal computational cost in the nonlinear example.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2026

Wasserstein mixing of a systematic-scan random rotation sampler

We study the mixing time of a systematic-scan analogue of Kac's walk that was proposed as a fast surrogate for Haar-distributed orthogonal matrices in randomized high-dimensional algorithms and was conjectured to approach Haar measure after only logarithmically many sweeps. We show that this conjectured speed-up does not occur for convergence of the full matrix law to Haar measure in Frobenius Wasserstein distance. At fixed normalized accuracy, the mixing time lies between order $n/\log n$ and order $n$ sweeps; at fixed absolute Frobenius accuracy, the corresponding bounds are between order $n$ and order $n\log n$. More strongly, below the scale $n/\log n$, the normalized Wasserstein distance remains asymptotically at its extremal value. We also show that the output law is singular with respect to Haar measure for fewer than $n/2$ sweeps. Thus the sampler may provide effective application-specific randomization without exhibiting the much faster full-Haar mixing.

stat.CO↗