Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 1601.01560

The life cycle of a coherent Lagrangian Agulhas ring

Abstract

We document the long-term evolution of an Agulhas ring detected from satellite altimetry using a technique from nonlinear dynamical systems that enables objective (i.e., observer-independent) eddy framing. Such objectively detected eddies have Lagrangian (material) boundaries that remain coherent (unfilamented) over the detection period. The ring preserves a quite compact material entity for a period of about 2 years even after most initial coherence is lost within 5 months after detection. We attribute this to the successive development of short-term coherent material boundaries around the ring. These boundaries provide effective short-term shielding for the ring, which prevents a large fraction of the ring's interior from being mixed with the ambient turbulent flow. We show that such coherence regain events cannot be inferred from Eulerian analysis. This process is terminated by a ring-splitting event which marks the ring demise, near the South American coast. The genesis of the ring is characterized by a ring-merging event away from the Agulhas retroflection, followed by a 4-month-long partial coherence stage, scenario that is quite different than a simple current occlusion and subsequent eddy pinch off.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Y. Wang, F. J. Beron-Vera, M. J. Olascoaga. 2016-01-07. The life cycle of a coherent Lagrangian Agulhas ring. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jc011620

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

The Physical Limit of Neural Hypoxia Detection in the Black Sea from Satellite Observations

Coastal hypoxia (O_2 < 63 [mmol / m^3]) threatens ocean health worldwide. On continental shelves, summer stratification prevents bottom oxygen consumed by respiration from being renewed, making monitoring essential to protect vulnerable ecosystems and reduce biodiversity loss. Although satellite observations are increasingly available, their potential to infer subsurface oxygen remains largely unexplored. We frame this as a Bayesian inverse problem relating surface observations to the complete three-dimensional physical and biogeochemical states of the Black Sea. Here, we solve it using a deep generative neural network trained on numerical model outputs that provides a tractable and computationally efficient approximation of the true posterior distribution of sea states. We find that accurate state estimation is limited to the mixed layer, because its homogeneity makes surface conditions representative of subsurface states. During summer, we detect 38% of all hypoxic events shelf-wide with a precision of 47%. Improving the results will likely require longer assimilation windows or subsurface observations.

physics.ao-ph

CNN-based forecasting of early winter NAO using sea surface temperature

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is well understood, the NAO can also be driven by SST anomalies. However, this NAO response to SST anomalies is believed to be weak and nonlinear. Former studies highlight that during early winter (November-December), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate the NAO, with El Nino (La Nina) events being linked to positive (negative) NAO phases, and an opposite effect observed in late winter (January-February). Indian Ocean SSTs and the North Atlantic Horseshoe SST anomaly have also been suggested as contributors to early winter NAO variability. However, climate models often struggle to capture these SST-NAO teleconnections, particularly in early winter. To address this, a statistical framework based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is developed to predict the early winter NAO using observed SST fields one-, two-, and three-month before. A linear model serves as a benchmark, and both models are trained on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023. A sensitivity analysis is used to interpret the CNN's decision-making process, revealing that it focuses on regions such as the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic, confirming results from previous works. The CNN outperforms the linear model, highlighting the value of capturing nonlinear SST-NAO relationships. Prediction skill appears to be linked to ENSO, with strong ENSO events associated with greater skill in forecasting the NAO than neutral events. These findings underscore the potential of deep learning to build medium-range NAO prediction.

physics.ao-ph

PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay

We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a single unified tropical cyclone climatology model. PepC-Global represents tropical cyclone climatology as a coupled stochastic process linking genesis, track, and intensity conditioned on large-scale environmental predictors. Each of the genesis, track, and intensity modules outperforms widely used linear models in out-of-sample tests. The intensity module also incorporates an environment-dependent over-land decay model, offering greater sensitivity to climate change signals than conventional fixed decay rate approaches. Systematic evaluation against observations demonstrates that PepC-Global closely reproduces genesis basin-wise frequency, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and spatial distributions. The model also accurately captures basin-wise track patterns, along-coastline landfall frequency, and intensity statistics including lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity distributions. PepC-Global provides a versatile tool for probabilistic tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment and a practical framework for investigating changes in tropical cyclone activity across future climate scenarios.

physics.ao-ph