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arXiv · 1604.08895

The puzzle that just isn't

Christian Mueller-Kademann
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Abstract

In his stimulating article on the reasons for two puzzling observations about the behaviour of interest rates, exchange rates and the rate of inflation, Charles Engel (2016) puts forward an explanation that rests on the concept of a non-pecuniary liquidity return on assets. Albeit intriguing the analysis struggles to account for a number of facts which are familiar to participants of the foreign exchange and bond markets. Reconciling these facts in conjunction with a careful dissection of the "puzzle" to begin with, shows that the forward premium puzzle just does not exist, at least not in its canonical form.

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Christian Mueller-Kademann. 2016-04-29. The puzzle that just isn't. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.08895

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