Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1607.08237

The population of long-period transiting exoplanets

Daniel Foreman-Mackey·Timothy D. Morton·David W. Hogg·Eric Agol·Bernhard Schölkopf
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The Kepler Mission has discovered thousands of exoplanets and revolutionized our understanding of their population. This large, homogeneous catalog of discoveries has enabled rigorous studies of the occurrence rate of exoplanets and planetary systems as a function of their physical properties. However, transit surveys like Kepler are most sensitive to planets with orbital periods much shorter than the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, the most massive planets in our Solar System. To address this deficiency, we perform a fully automated search for long-period exoplanets with only one or two transits in the archival Kepler light curves. When applied to the $\sim 40,000$ brightest Sun-like target stars, this search produces 16 long-period exoplanet candidates. Of these candidates, 6 are novel discoveries and 5 are in systems with inner short-period transiting planets. Since our method involves no human intervention, we empirically characterize the detection efficiency of our search. Based on these results, we measure the average occurrence rate of exoplanets smaller than Jupiter with orbital periods in the range 2-25 years to be $2.0\pm0.7$ planets per Sun-like star.

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.EPastro-ph.IM

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Daniel Foreman-Mackey, Timothy D. Morton, David W. Hogg, Eric Agol, Bernhard Schölkopf. 2016-10-06. The population of long-period transiting exoplanets. https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-6256%2F152%2F6%2F206

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Large-scale chaos in restricted hierarchical triples driven by short-range forces

Context: The eccentric von Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai effect, which is widely applied to diverse astrophysical settings, can drive the inner binary to extremely high eccentricities, where short-range forces such as general relativity (GR) become prominent. Aims: Poincare surfaces of section show that GR effects reshape phase-space structures, giving rise to a widespread and large-scale chaotic sea. This work aims to uncover the underlying mechanism of GR-enabled chaos. Methods: The dynamical structures are studied within an adiabatic framework, where an adiabatic invariant is constructed. Phase portraits, defined by the level curves of this invariant, establish analytical boundaries for the chaotic domains. Numerical simulations are subsequently performed to map orbital flips, maximum eccentricities, and Fast Lyapunov Indicators (FLI) across the initial eccentricity-inclination parameter space. Results: Phase portrait analysis demonstrates that GR precession introduces an uncertainty zone near polar inclinations, where trajectories crossing this zone inherently become chaotic. Leveraging this framework, the chaotic boundaries across the full parameter space are analytically derived, yielding excellent agreement with numerical maps of flipping orbits, maximum eccentricity, and FLI. Conclusions: In the presence of short-range forces, flipping orbits accompanied by extreme eccentricity excitation are fundamentally chaotic, and the underlying mechanism of large-scale chaos originates from the periodic passage of trajectories through the uncertainty zone in phase space over secular timescales.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Possible Observational Survey Strategies to Maximize Exoplanet Yields: A Report from the Survey Strategies Task Group in the Exoplanet Science Yields Working Group

We present a variety of possible observational sequences from planet detection to characterization (i.e., survey strategies) for the initial exoEarth detection and characterization survey phase of the Habitable Worlds Observatory. An array of survey strategies were collated by the HWO Exoplanet Survey Strategies Task Group; by investigating and comparing expected resultant exoEarth yields for multiple survey strategies, we can better understand the most efficient strategy to characterize multiple planets in unconventional ways. We present eight varied survey strategies, presented as steps of Detection, Photometry, Orbit Measurement, and/or Characterization, including discussion of possible shortcomings and benefits of each strategy. We present exoEarth yield calculations from the Altruistic Yield Optimizer (AYO) and the Exoplanet Open-Source Imaging Mission Simulator (EXOSIMS) for select strategies, with initial considerations of thermal emission and detector noise. Herein, a yield is the expectation value given the astrophysical assumptions of the number of planets that meet the observational criteria during the survey. We find that AYO and EXOSIMS find the highest yields for H2O at 0.9 microns, although the calculated yields vary. When allowing for wavelength optimization within AYO, we find that H2O is most optimal to observe at 0.9 microns when given the full range of VIS and NIR values, with an expected exoEarth yield of 29.1. H2O and O2 dual characterization is possible at the expense of yield planet loss, with a calculated possible yield of 20.9 in the VIS. The characterization of CH4 and CO2 in the NIR result in the lowest exoEarth yields at 19.9 and 6.4 possible expected planets, respectively. Future work updating AYO and EXOSIMS is necessary to explore further survey strategies that follow different observation procedures, some of which is currently underway.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

Molecular mapping of an exoplanet with JWST: NH3 detection in the temperate super-Jupiter Epsilon Indi Ab

Epsilon Indi Ab is currently the coldest, and one of the closest, directly imaged exoplanets (T_eff = 275 K, d=3.6 pc), offering a unique opportunity to test our understanding of the physical and chemical properties of gas giants across the full temperature range spanned by hotter directly imaged exoplanets and the cooler giants of the Solar System. We aim to characterize the atmosphere of Epsilon Indi Ab using infrared spectroscopic observations. We present JWST spectroscopic observations of Epsilon Indi Ab obtained with MIRI in the Medium Resolution Spectrograph mode (4.9-27.9 microns, October 2025) and NIRSpec in the Integral Field Unit mode (2.87-5.27 microns, May 2026). The data are highly contaminated by the stellar light from the bright host star. We therefore adopt a high-pass filtering and cross-correlation approach based on petitRADTRANS atmospheric models to detect the planetary signal and specific molecules. The cross-correlation analysis enables a robust detection of the planet with both instruments (up to S/N = 15.2). Using molecular mapping, we securely identify the presence of NH3 (maximum S/N = 15.6), H2O (maximum S/N = 10.8), CH4 (S/N = 3.8) and marginally detect CO2 (S/N = 2.5). These first results confirm the potential of infrared spectroscopy combined to cross-correlation techniques to characterize the atmosphere of directly imaged exoplanets with JWST, even the in case where the contamination by the host star is critical.

astro-ph.EP↗