The role of disease cycles in the endemicity of infectious diseases

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the system where the reservoirs are not included could turn out to be less than one, yet, an endemic equilibrium be observed. Indeed, when the reservoirs are taken back into account, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}_0^r$, of only vectors and reservoirs, explains the endemic state. Furthermore, reservoirs cycles with a small basic reproductive number could contribute to reach an endemic state in the human cycle. Therefore, when controlling for the spread of a disease, it could not be enough to focus on specific reservoir cycles or only on the vector. In this work, we created a simple epidemiological model with a network of reservoirs where $\mathcal{R}_0^r$ is a bifurcation parameter of the system, explaining disease endemicity in the absence of a strong reservoir cycle. This simple model may help to explain transmission dynamics of diseases such as Chagas, Leishmaniasis and Dengue.