Blinded and unblinded sample size re-estimation procedures for stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials

Michael Grayling; Adrian Mander; James Wason

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arXiv · 1710.02683

Blinded and unblinded sample size re-estimation procedures for stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials

Michael Grayling·Adrian Mander·James Wason

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Abstract

The ability to accurately estimate the sample size required by a stepped-wedge (SW) cluster randomized trial (CRT) routinely depends upon the specification of several nuisance parameters. If these parameters are mis-specified, the trial could be over-powered, leading to increased cost, or under-powered, enhancing the likelihood of a false negative. We address this issue here for cross-sectional SW-CRTs, analyzed with a particular linear mixed model, by proposing methods for blinded and unblinded sample size re-estimation (SSRE). Blinded estimators for the variance parameters of a SW-CRT analyzed using the Hussey and Hughes model are derived. Then, procedures for blinded and unblinded SSRE after any time period in a SW-CRT are detailed. The performance of these procedures is then examined and contrasted using two example trial design scenarios. We find that if the two key variance parameters were under-specified by 50%, the SSRE procedures were able to increase power over the conventional SW-CRT design by up to 29%, resulting in an empirical power above the desired level. Moreover, the performance of the re-estimation procedures was relatively insensitive to the timing of the interim assessment. Thus, the considered SSRE procedures can bring substantial gains in power when the underlying variance parameters are mis-specified. Though there are practical issues to consider, the procedure's performance means researchers should consider incorporating SSRE in to future SW-CRTs.

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Michael Grayling, Adrian Mander, James Wason. 2017-10-07. Blinded and unblinded sample size re-estimation procedures for stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02683

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