Moment Analysis of Stochastic Hybrid Systems Using Semidefinite Programming

Abstract

This paper proposes a semidefinite programming based method for estimating moments of a stochastic hybrid system (SHS). For polynomial SHSs -- which consist of polynomial continuous vector fields, reset maps, and transition intensities -- the dynamics of moments evolve according to a system of linear ordinary differential equations. However, it is generally not possible to solve the system exactly since time evolution of a specific moment may depend upon moments of order higher than it. One way to overcome this problem is to employ so-called moment closure methods that give point approximations to moments, but these are limited in that accuracy of the estimations is unknown. We find lower and upper bounds on a moment of interest via a semidefinite program that includes linear constraints obtained from moment dynamics, along with semidefinite constraints that arise from the non-negativity of moment matrices. These bounds are further shown to improve as the size of semidefinite program is increased. The key insight in the method is a reduction from stochastic hybrid systems with multiple discrete modes to a single-mode hybrid system with algebraic constraints. We further extend the scope of the proposed method to a class of non-polynomial SHSs which can be recast to polynomial SHSs via augmentation of additional states. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of results via examples of SHSs drawn from different disciplines.