Estimation and inference for precision matrices of non-stationary time series

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the estimation and inference of precision matrices of a rich class of locally stationary and nonlinear time series assuming that only one realization of the time series is observed. Using a Cholesky decomposition technique, we show that the precision matrices can be directly estimated via a series of least squares linear regressions with smoothly time-varying coefficients. The method of sieves is utilized for the estimation and is shown to be efficient and optimally adaptive in terms of estimation accuracy and computational complexity. We establish an asymptotic theory for a class of ${\cal L}^2$ tests based on the nonparametric sieve estimators. The latter are used for testing whether the precision matrices are diagonal or banded. A high dimensional Gaussian approximation result is established for a wide class of quadratic form of non-stationary and nonlinear processes, which is of interest by itself.