Malware Epidemics Effects in a Lanchester Conflict Model

Abstract

We propose a framework for examining the effects of infections with self-replicating malware on military forces engaged in kinetic combat. The framework uses models, in which kinetic attrition is represented by a Lanchester model coupled with an SIR-like model describing the malware propagation across the forces. Basic knowledge about the expected circumstances restricts the set of scenarios to be analyzed using the model. Remaining uncertainties are taken into account as random variations given by information-theoretic principles. The situation assessment is realized by Monte-Carlo simulations with the risk as a possible assessment measure. An application of the proposed framework to a simple exemplary situation demonstrates its usage in practice. The assumed uncertainties about the considered situation lead to an outcome statistics, which changes corresponding to the improving knowledge about the situation. Large uncertainties may lead to results profoundly different from point estimates. For assuring practicability, the paper provides options to determine the values of important model parameters by measurement. It also discusses how to utilize the assessment results calculated with help of the framework.