An external validation of Thais' cardiovascular 10-year risk assessment in the southern Thailand

Suthara Aramcharoen; Ponlapat Satian; Ponlachart Chotikarn; Sipat Triukose

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arXiv · 1811.03860

An external validation of Thais' cardiovascular 10-year risk assessment in the southern Thailand

Suthara Aramcharoen·Ponlapat Satian·Ponlachart Chotikarn·Sipat Triukose

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Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is a number one cause of death globally. WHO estimated that CVD is a cause of 17.9 million deaths (or 31% of all global deaths) in 2016. It may seem surprising, CVDs can be easily prevented by altering lifestyle to avoid risk factors. The only requirement needed is to know your risk prior. Thai CV Risk score is a trustworthy tool to forecast risk of having cardiovascular event in the future for Thais. This study is an external validation of the Thai CV risk score. We aim to answer two key questions. Firstly, Can Thai CV Risk score developed using dataset of people from central and north western parts of Thailand is applicable to people from other parts of the country? Secondly, Can Thai CV Risk score developed for general public works for hospital's patients who tend to have higher risk? We answer these two questions using a dataset of 1,025 patients (319 males, 35-70 years old) from Lansaka Hospital in the southern Thailand. In brief, we find that the Thai CV risk score works for southern Thais population including patients in the hospital. It generally works well for low CV risk group. However, the score tends to overestimate moderate and high risks. Fortunately, this poses no serious concern for general public as it only makes people be more careful about their lifestyle. The doctor should be careful when using the score with other factors to make treatment decision.

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Suthara Aramcharoen, Ponlapat Satian, Ponlachart Chotikarn, Sipat Triukose. 2018-11-09. An external validation of Thais' cardiovascular 10-year risk assessment in the southern Thailand. https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.03860

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