Does the risk of death continue to rise among supercentenarians?

Francisco Villavicencio; José Manuel Aburto

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arXiv · 1812.01952

Does the risk of death continue to rise among supercentenarians?

Francisco Villavicencio·José Manuel Aburto

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Abstract

A recent study in the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph published by the Society of Actuaries suggests, in contrast to previous research, that the risk of death after 110 increases with age. By fitting a Gompertz model to estimated central death rates for the oldest old, the authors challenge existing theory and empirical research indicating a deceleration of mortality at older ages and the emergence of a plateau. We argue that their results are inconclusive for three reasons: (1) the data selection was arbitrary; (2) the statistical analysis was inappropriate; and (3) the presentation of the results is misleading and inadequate. We therefore claim that the hypothesis that the human force of mortality increases after age 110 has not been proved.

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Francisco Villavicencio, José Manuel Aburto. 2018-12-05. Does the risk of death continue to rise among supercentenarians?. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.01952

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