Ensemble updating of binary state vectors by maximising the expected number of unchanged components

Abstract

In recent years, several ensemble-based filtering methods have been proposed and studied. The main challenge in such procedures is the updating of a prior ensemble to a posterior ensemble at every step of the filtering recursions. In the famous ensemble Kalman filter, the assumption of a linear-Gaussian state space model is introduced in order to overcome this issue, and the prior ensemble is updated with a linear shift closely related to the traditional Kalman filter equations. In the current article, we consider how the ideas underlying the ensemble Kalman filter can be applied when the components of the state vectors are binary variables. While the ensemble Kalman filter relies on Gaussian approximations of the forecast and filtering distributions, we instead use first order Markov chains. To update the prior ensemble, we simulate samples from a distribution constructed such that the expected number of equal components in a prior and posterior state vector is maximised. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in a simulation example inspired by the movement of oil and water in a petroleum reservoir, where also a more naïve updating approach is applied for comparison. Here, we observe that the Frobenius norm of the difference between the estimated and the true marginal filtering probabilities is reduced to the half with our method compared to the naïve approach, indicating that our method is superior. Finally, we discuss how our methodology can be generalised from the binary setting to more complicated situations.