Predicting the Long-Term Outcomes of Biologics in Psoriasis Patients Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Background. Real-world data show that approximately 50% of psoriasis patients treated with a biologic agent will discontinue the drug because of loss of efficacy. History of previous therapy with another biologic, female sex and obesity were identified as predictors of drug discontinuations, but their individual predictive value is low. Objectives. To determine whether machine learning algorithms can produce models that can accurately predict outcomes of biologic therapy in psoriasis on individual patient level. Results. All tested machine learning algorithms could accurately predict the risk of drug discontinuation and its cause (e.g. lack of efficacy vs adverse event). The learned generalized linear model achieved diagnostic accuracy of 82%, requiring under 2 seconds per patient using the psoriasis patients dataset. Input optimization analysis established a profile of a patient who has best chances of long-term treatment success: biologic-naive patient under 49 years, early-onset plaque psoriasis without psoriatic arthritis, weight < 100 kg, and moderate-to-severe psoriasis activity (DLQI $\geq$ 16; PASI $\geq$ 10). Moreover, a different generalized linear model is used to predict the length of treatment for each patient with mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.5 months. However Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicates 0.935 linear dependencies between the actual treatment lengths and predicted ones. Conclusions. Machine learning algorithms predict the risk of drug discontinuation and treatment duration with accuracy exceeding 80%, based on a small set of predictive variables. This approach can be used as a decision-making tool, communicating expected outcomes to the patient, and development of evidence-based guidelines.