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arXiv · 1909.08693

The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise

Yayun Zheng·Fang Yang·Jinqiao Duan·Xu Sun·Ling Fu·Jürgen Kurths
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Abstract

An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $α$-stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under $α$-stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps, and the climate change for warming $1.5\rm ^oC$ under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a step-like growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.

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Yayun Zheng, Fang Yang, Jinqiao Duan, Xu Sun, Ling Fu, Jürgen Kurths. 2019-09-06. The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.08693

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