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arXiv · 2001.05875

Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: indirect patient movements

M. J. Piotrowska·K. Sakowski·A. Karch·H. Tahir·J. Horn·M. E. Kretzschmar·R. T. Mikolajczyk
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Abstract

A hybrid network--deterministic model for simulation of multiresistant pathogen spread in a healthcare system is presented. The model accounts for two paths of pathogen transmission between the healthcare facilities: inter-hospital patient transfers (direct transfers) and readmission of colonized patients (indirect transfers). In the latter case, the patients may be readmitted to the same facility or to a different one. Intra-hospital pathogen transmission is governed by a SIS model expressed by a system of ordinary differential equations. Using a network model created for a Lower Saxony region (Germany), we showed that the proposed model reproduces the basic properties of healthcare-associated pathogen spread. Moreover, it shows the important contribution of the readmission of colonized patients on the prevalence of individual hospitals as well as of overall healthcare system: it can increase the overall prevalence by the factor of 4 as compared to inter-hospital transfers only. The final prevalence in individual healthcare facilities was shown to depend on average length of stay by a non-linear concave function. Finally, we demonstrated that the network parameters of the model may be derived from administrative admission/discharge records. In particular, they are sufficient to obtain inter-hospital transfer probabilities, and to express the patients' transfer as a Markov process.

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M. J. Piotrowska, K. Sakowski, A. Karch, H. Tahir, J. Horn, M. E. Kretzschmar, R. T. Mikolajczyk. 2020-01-15. Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: indirect patient movements. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008442

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