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arXiv · 2002.05866

Trend and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Qiang Li·Wei Feng
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Abstract

By using the public data from Jan. 20 to Feb. 11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections are predicted to be Feb. 6 and Feb. 1, 2020, for Hubei and China other than Hubei, respectively. The epidemic in China is predicted to end up after Mar. 10, 2020, and the number of the total infections are predicted to be 51600. The data trends reveal that quick and active strategies taken by China to reduce human exposure have already had a good impact on the control of the epidemic.

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Qiang Li, Wei Feng. 2020-02-14. Trend and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.014

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