Determining feature importance for actionable climate change mitigation policies

Abstract

Given the importance of public support for policy change and implementation, public policymakers and researchers have attempted to understand the factors associated with this support for climate change mitigation policy. In this article, we compare the feasibility of using different supervised learning methods for regression using a novel socio-economic data set which measures public support for potential climate change mitigation policies. Following this model selection, we utilize gradient boosting regression, a well-known technique in the machine learning community, but relatively uncommon in public policy and public opinion research, and seek to understand what factors among the several examined in previous studies are most central to shaping public support for mitigation policies in climate change studies. The use of this method provides novel insights into the most important factors for public support for climate change mitigation policies. Using national survey data, we find that the perceived risks associated with climate change are more decisive for shaping public support for policy options promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants. However, we observe a very different behavior related to public support for increasing the use of nuclear energy where climate change risk perception is no longer the sole decisive feature. Our findings indicate that public support for renewable energy is inherently different from that for nuclear energy reliance with the risk perception of climate change, dominant for the former, playing a subdued role for the latter.