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arXiv · 2004.05778

A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period

David B. Saakian
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Abstract

Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some analytical results, as well as perform numerical simulations. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia. We propose a strategy: organize a quarantine, and then conduct extensive testing of risk groups during the quarantine, evaluating the percentage of the population among risk groups and people with symptoms.

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David B. Saakian. 2020-04-13. A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.07.007

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