Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model

Nathaniel S. Barlow; Steven J. Weinstein

doi:10.1016/j.physd.2020.132540 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132807

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arXiv · 2004.07833

Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model

Nathaniel S. Barlow·Steven J. Weinstein

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Abstract

An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent power series solution such that it matches the long-time asymptotic behavior of the epidemic model. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Nathaniel S. Barlow, Steven J. Weinstein. 2020-04-16. Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132540 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132807

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