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arXiv · 2004.08588

Future of COVID-19 in Italy: A mathematical perspective

Sumit Kumar·Sandeep Sharma·Nitu Kumari
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Abstract

We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current situation in Italy, in this paper, we will estimate the possible time for the end of the pandemic in the country. The impact of lockdown and rapid isolation on the spread of the pandemic are also discussed. Further, we have studied four of the most pandemic affected regions in Italy. Using the proposed model, a prediction has been made about the duration of pandemic in these regions. The variation in the basic reproduction number corresponding to the sensitive parameters of the model is also examined.

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Sumit Kumar, Sandeep Sharma, Nitu Kumari. 2020-04-18. Future of COVID-19 in Italy: A mathematical perspective. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6264-2_6

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