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arXiv · 2004.12462

Ending the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom

L C G Rogers
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Abstract

Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the results of the Imperial College report by Ferguson et al show that the impact of the infection increases sharply with age. This paper develops a variant of the workhorse SIR model for epidemics, where the population is classified into a number of age groups. This allows us to understand the effects of age-dependent controls on the epidemic, and explore possible exit strategies.

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L C G Rogers. 2020-04-26. Ending the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12462

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