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arXiv · 2005.06742

Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models

J. E. Amaro·J. Dudouet·J. N. Orce
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Abstract

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.

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J. E. Amaro, J. Dudouet, J. N. Orce. 2020-05-14. Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2020.10.019

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