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arXiv · 2005.08907

Halting SARS-CoV-2 by Targeting High-Contact Individuals

Gianluca Manzo·Arnout van de Rijt
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Abstract

Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals. Can this strategy be effective in combating a virus partly transmitted in close-range contact, as many believe SARS-CoV-2 to be? Effectiveness critically depends on high between-person variability in the number of close-range contacts. We analyze population survey data showing that indeed the distribution of close-range contacts across individuals is characterized by a small fraction of individuals reporting very high frequencies. Strikingly, we find that the average duration of contact is mostly invariant in the number of contacts, reinforcing the criticality of hubs. We simulate a population embedded in a network with empirically observed contact frequencies. Simulations show that targeting hubs robustly improves containment.

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Gianluca Manzo, Arnout van de Rijt. 2020-07-24. Halting SARS-CoV-2 by Targeting High-Contact Individuals. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4435

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