Gamma-ray Blazar variability: New statistical methods of time-flux distributions

Abstract

Variable \gama-ray emission from blazars, one of the most powerful classes of astronomical sources featuring relativistic jets, is a widely discussed topic. In this work, we present the results of a variability study of a sample of 20 blazars using \gama-ray (0.1--300~GeV) observations from Fermi/LAT telescope. Using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) methods, we find that the probability density functions that best describe the $γ$-ray blazar flux distributions use the stable distribution family, which generalizes the Gaussian distribution. The results suggest that the average behavior of the \gama-ray flux variability over this period can be characterized by log-stable distributions. For most of the sample sources, this estimate leads to standard log-normal distribution ($α=2$). However, a few sources clearly display heavy tail distributions (MLE leads to $α<2$), suggesting underlying multiplicative processes of infinite variance. Furthermore, the light curves were analyzed by employing novel non-stationarity and autocorrelation analyses. The former analysis allowed us to quantitatively evaluate non-stationarity in each source -- finding the forgetting rate (corresponding to decay time) maximizing the log-likelihood for the modeled evolution of the probability density functions. Additionally, evaluation of local variability allows us to detect local anomalies, suggesting a transient nature of some of the statistical properties of the light curves. With the autocorrelation analysis, we examined the lag dependence of the statistical behavior of all the $\{(y_t,y_{t+l})\}$ points, described by various mixed moments, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate multiple characteristic time scales and implying possible hidden periodic processes.