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arXiv · 2006.07230

Signatures consistent with multi-frequency tipping in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Andrew Keane·Bernd Krauskopf·Timothy M. Lenton
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Abstract

The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic solutions at fold bifurcations. We discuss here multi-frequency tipping (M-tipping), which is tipping due to the disappearance of an attracting torus. M-tipping is a generic phenomenon in systems with at least two intrinsic or external frequencies that can interact and, hence, is relevant to a wide variety of systems of interest. We show that the more complicated sequence of bifurcations involved in M-tipping provides a possible consistent explanation for as yet unexplained behavior observed near tipping in climate models for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. More generally, this work provides a path towards identifying possible early-warning signs of tipping in multiple-frequency systems.

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Andrew Keane, Bernd Krauskopf, Timothy M. Lenton. 2020-06-12. Signatures consistent with multi-frequency tipping in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.125.228701

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