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arXiv · 2006.10266

Small Area Estimation of Health Outcomes

Jon Wakefield·Taylor Okonek·Jon Pedersen
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Abstract

Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested, from a bewildering range of philosophical standpoints. We describe design-based and model-based approaches and models that are specified at the area-level and at the unit-level, focusing on health applications and fully Bayesian spatial models. The use of auxiliary information is a key ingredient for successful inference when response data are sparse and we discuss a number of approaches that allow the inclusion of covariate data. SAE for HIV prevalence, using data collected from a Demographic Health Survey in Malawi in 2015-2016, is used to illustrate a number of techniques. The potential use of SAE techniques for outcomes related to COVID-19 is discussed.

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Jon Wakefield, Taylor Okonek, Jon Pedersen. 2020-06-18. Small Area Estimation of Health Outcomes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.10266

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