Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in $^{116,118,120,122,124,130,132}$Sn, $^{208}$Pb, and $^{48}$Ca

Abstract

The neutron skin thickness $Δr_{np}$ in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density $ρ_0$ of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for $^{208}$Pb and $^{48}$Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter $L$ of the nuclear symmetry energy at $ρ_0$ from imagined $Δr_{np}(^{208}$Pb$)=0.15$, 0.20, and 0.30 fm as well as $Δr_{np}(^{48}$Ca$)=0.12$, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different $1σ$ error bars. The results are compared with the PDFs of $L$ inferred using the same approach from the available $Δr_{np}$ data for Sn isotopes from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives $L=45.5^{+26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or $L=53.4^{+18.6}_{-29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum {\it a posteriori} value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the $L=66_{-20}^{+12}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68\% confidence intervals. In order to provide additionally useful information on $L$ extracted from the $Δr_{np}$ of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of $Δr_{np}(^{208}$Pb) should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments.