An empirical model on the dynamics of Covid-19 spread in human population

Nilmani Mathur; Gargi Shaw

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arXiv · 2008.06346

An empirical model on the dynamics of Covid-19 spread in human population

Nilmani Mathur·Gargi Shaw

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Abstract

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various countries we formulate a model which can successfully track the time evolution from early days to the saturation period in a given wave of this infectious disease. It involves a set of effective parameters which can be extracted from the available data. Using those parameters the future trajectories of the disease spread can also be projected. A set of differential equations is also proposed whose solutions are these time evolution trajectories. Using such a formalism we project the future time evolution trajectories of infection spread for a number of countries where the Covid-19 infection is still rapidly rising.

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Nilmani Mathur, Gargi Shaw. 2020-08-13. An empirical model on the dynamics of Covid-19 spread in human population. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.06346

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