Tracking the time course of reproduction number and lockdown's effect during SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: nonparametric estimation

Abstract

Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of the contact rate, often assuming a time-invariant effect of the lockdown. In this paper we show that these assumptions may lead to erroneous evaluations on the ongoing pandemic. Thus, we develop a new class of nonparametric compartmental models able to describe how the impact of the lockdown varies in time. Exploiting regularization theory, hospitalized data are mapped into an infinite-dimensional space, hence obtaining a function which takes into account also how social distancing measures and people's growing awareness of infection's risk evolves as time progresses. This permits to reconstruct a continuous-time profile of SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number with a resolution never reached before. When applied to data collected in Lombardy, the most affected Italian region, our model illustrates how people behaviour changed during the restrictions and its importance to contain the epidemic. Results also indicate that, at the end of the lockdown, around 12% of people in Lombardy and 5% in Italy was affected by SARS-CoV-2. Then, we discuss how the situation evolved after the end of the lockdown showing that the reproduction number is dangerously increasing in the last weeks due to holiday relax especially in the younger population and increased migrants arrival, reaching values larger than one on August 1, 2020. Since several countries still observe a growing epidemic, including Italy, and all could be subject to a second wave after the summer, the proposed reproduction number tracking methodology can be of great help to health care authorities to prevent another SARS-CoV-2 diffusion or to assess the impact of lockdown restrictions to contain the spread.