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arXiv · 2008.13561

Sustainable Border Control Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Math Modeling Study

Zhen Zhu·Enzo Weber·Till Strohsal·Duaa Serhan
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Abstract

Imported COVID-19 cases, if unchecked, can jeopardize the effort of domestic containment. We aim to find out what sustainable border control options for different entities (e.g., countries, states) exist during the reopening phases, given their own choice of domestic control measures and new technologies such as contact tracing. We propose a SUIHR model, which represents an extension to the discrete time SIR models. The model focuses on studying the spreading of virus predominantly by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients. Imported risk and (1-tier) contact tracing are both built into the model. Under plausible parameter assumptions, we seek sustainable border control policies, in combination with sufficient internal measures, which allow entities to confine the virus without the need to revert back to more restrictive life styles or to rely on herd immunity. When the base reproduction number of COVID-19 exceeds 2.5, even 100% effective contact tracing alone is not enough to contain the spreading. For an entity that has completely eliminated the virus domestically, and resumes "normal", very strict pre-departure screening and test and isolation upon arrival combined with effective contact tracing can only delay another outbreak by 6 months. However, if the total net imported cases are non-increasing, and the entity employs a confining domestic control policy, then the total new cases can be contained even without border control.

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Zhen Zhu, Enzo Weber, Till Strohsal, Duaa Serhan. 2020-08-28. Sustainable Border Control Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Math Modeling Study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.13561

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