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arXiv · 2009.00308

Proposal of a recursive compartment model of epidemics and applications to the Covid-19 pandemic

Matthias Kreck·Erhard Scholz
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Abstract

This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which typically are fulfilled for the Covid-19 pandemic it can be used to reproduce the development of an epidemic from a small number of parameters closely related to the data. We demonstrate this at the development in Germany and Switzerland. It also allows model predictions assuming nearly constant reproduction numbers. Thus it might be a useful tool for shedding light on which interventions might be most effective in the future. In future work we will discuss other aspects of the model and more countries.

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Matthias Kreck, Erhard Scholz. 2020-09-01. Proposal of a recursive compartment model of epidemics and applications to the Covid-19 pandemic. https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.00308

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